Indianapolis. Undefeated. At Home. 12-game regular season winning streak.
Seattle. No Hasselbeck. Beat up O-Line. 1-2.
The line is 10.5, but it looks like a blowout of biblical proportions to me!
My surprise team this week is the Baltimore Ravens, who should make a statement in Foxboro this afternoon by breaking a somewhat unstable Patriots team. Two years removed from coasting through most of a record-setting season, the Patriots have not discovered that the return of Tom Brady equates to the return of a monster passing attack. With Moss and Welker nursing injuries and Brady not being quite the Brady of old, the Pats need this game to assert themselves as a contender.
The Patriots are favored by 1.5 points... I say the Ravens get a double-digit win.
My projected scores are still bizarre, but on the season I have been an average of 1.74 points more accurate than the spread in each game. A bad Week 2 has me at 25-23 against the spread this year, and 32-16 picking winners.
In games where I project the spread to be more than 10 points off, I am 16-11 vs. the spread.
In games where I project the spread to be more than 15 points off, I am 10-5 vs. the spread.
Oddly, I am only 5-4 if I think the spread is 20 or more points off... if you'll remember my Indy blowout prediction at the start of this post, you'll recognize that statistically, I've only got about a 56% chance of being right!
This season, I am 11-6 on games I would have actually bet on, if I gambled. Here are the teams I would bet on this week:
IND (-10.5) vs SEA
HOU (-9) vs OAK
TEN (-3) vs JAC
NYG (-9.5) vs KC
CHI (-10) vs DET
CIN (-7) vs CLE
BAL (+1.5) vs NE
Here are my projected outcomes:
| IND 53 - SEA 0 |
| HOU 44 - OAK 17 |
| TEN 30 - JAC 6 |
| NYG 48 - KC 23 |
| CHI 44 - DET 22 |
| CIN 26 - CLE 9 |
| NO 50 - NYJ 33 |
| BAL 32 - NE 20 |
| SF 29 - STL 17 |
| TB 20 - WAS 10 |
| DAL 30 - DEN 22 |
| MIN 34 - GB 27 |
| MIA 32 - BUF 26 |
| PIT 20 - SD 16 |
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