Sunday, November 1, 2009

NFL Game Projections 2009 - Week 8

NFL Game Projections 2009 - Week 8

I was 10-3 last week against the spread, and an even better 7-2 in games that I would have bet, were I of the gambling stripe.

My system self-tracks, grades its own performance, and tells me which games I should lay money down on each week based on the confidence of its projections. To over-simplify the system, each game falls into several categories. If the combined success rate in each category is over 50%, the system recommends I bet on the game. If it doesn't, the system recommends I keep my mouth shut.

In week 7, the system was projecting accurately enough to be over 50% in every single category, the highest having a 77% success rate so far this season.

Now... there is only one game this week that falls into that particular category, and that is the Green Bay vs. Minnesota game... which is probably the least predictable game since the 49ers came to Kansas City on September 11, 1994, where they lost to aging stars Joe Montana and Marcus Allen.

But Montana didn't then go back to Candlestick, which is what Favre does today.

So... the game the system is the most confident in is probably the one I am *least* confident in.

We'll see how it goes.


IND 47 - SF 0
SD 41 - OAK 3
HOU 49 - BUF 12
NO 61 - ATL 25
BAL 39 - DEN 16
DAL 36 - SEA 20
GB 35 - MIN 19
CHI 25 - CLE 11
DET 34 - STL 27
NYG 9 - PHI 10
ARI 33 - CAR 31
MIA 21 - NYJ 20
TEN 15 - JAC 14


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